Although this increase indicates stronger market activity, it does not necessarily mean that the real estate sector has returned to previous levels. To understand what is actually happening, we need to examine both quarterly trends and the total number of transactions compared with the previous year.
According to official data published by IPCBI(Cadastru), 9,225 transactions involving apartments that had been commissioned were registered in Chișinău during the first nine months of 2026. The quarterly figures show a steady increase in market activity:
Total for the first nine months: 9,225 apartments.
Compared with Q1 2026, 1,203 more apartments were sold in Q3, representing an increase of approximately 48%.
The growth was gradual: in Q2, the number of transactions increased by 17.2% compared with Q1, followed by a further 25.9% increase in Q3 compared with the previous quarter.
In other words, each quarter of 2026 recorded more transactions than the one before it.
The rise in transactions during Q2 and Q3 2026 may indicate that the real estate market is gradually adapting to new economic conditions. Following a period of caution, some buyers appear to be returning to the market, while others have adjusted to current price levels and are continuing their search for suitable properties.
Access to mortgage financing remains an important factor, as it can support demand and help some families turn their homeownership plans into reality. At the same time, pent-up demand accumulated during periods of lower market activity may be contributing to the increase in transactions as buyers find properties that match their budgets and expectations.
However, rising sales should not automatically be interpreted as a full market recovery. To confirm a sustainable trend, it will be important to monitor whether transaction volumes remain strong in the coming quarters and how the balance between supply, demand, and prices evolves.
Although Q3 was more active than the first quarter of 2026, the comparison with the same period in 2025 reveals a different picture.
This represents 1,865 fewer transactions during the first nine months of 2026, a 16.8% decline compared with the same period in 2025.
Therefore, although the market has demonstrated a clear increase in activity throughout 2026, the cumulative number of transactions remains below the previous year's level.
Chișinău’s real estate market is going through a period of adjustment, during which buyers and sellers are recalibrating their expectations in response to changing economic conditions.
In 2024, a total of 16,141 transactions involving apartments that had been commissioned were registered. In 2025, this figure declined to 14,342. For 2026, the estimated annual total is approximately 12,570 transactions (calculated and forecast based on the trend observed during the first three quarters of the year).
Although the number of transactions in 2026 is expected to be approximately 12.3% lower than in 2025 and around 22% lower than in 2024, this does not automatically mean that housing prices will fall by the same proportion.
The real estate market is influenced by several factors, including construction costs, housing supply, inflation, and access to financing. In this context, the current period can be viewed as a phase of market adjustment and stabilization, during which transactions are taking longer to materialize while prices may remain stable, particularly for well-located properties priced realistically.
A decline in the number of transactions does not guarantee lower property prices. Future price movements will depend on the balance between supply and demand. At present, however, the supply of properties remains relatively limited on both the primary and secondary markets.
Chișinău’s apartment market is showing signs of renewed activity. In Q3 2026, the number of transactions was almost 48% higher than in Q1, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth.
Although transaction volumes during the first nine months of 2026 remained 16.8% below the level recorded in the same period of 2025, the quarterly trend suggests that the market is gradually adapting to new economic conditions. Interest in purchasing residential property remains, but buyers have become more cautious and selective.
In this environment, a decline in transaction volumes does not automatically translate into falling prices. The market may be moving through a period of adjustment and stabilization, with future property values continuing to depend on the balance between supply and demand, construction costs, and access to financing.
P.S.: The data presented in this article is based on information published by IPBCI (Cadastre). The analysis covers only apartments that have been commissioned and excludes transactions involving future real estate properties.
Author: Victor Cernomorcenco
Realization of the analysis by Victor Cernomorcenco, specialist in real estate in Chisinau and representative of Acces Imobil.
Disclaimer: The copying, use or distribution of data on the Acces Imobil Real Estate Index is permitted only with the obligation to specify the source and to place an active link to accesimobil.md.
