According to official data from the Public Services Agency (Cadastre), in 2025 only 6,334 apartments were traded in Chisinau and its suburbs, which represents a decrease of approximately 61% compared to 2024, when 16,141 sale-purchase transactions were recorded.
The difference becomes even more relevant if we compare 2025 to 2021, the peak year of the real estate boom, supported by the high accessibility of mortgage loans, the First Home program and the context generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, the market reached a historical maximum of 24,391 apartments sold. Compared to this level, 2025 indicates a decrease of approximately 74%, one of the strongest contractions in recent years.
At the same time, price analysis shows an inversely proportional evolution to the volume of transactions. According to the Acces Imobil real estate index, the average price of apartments increased from 705 euros/m² in 2020 to 1,720 euros/m² at the end of 2025, which means an increase of approximately 144% in the average price per square meter in a 5-year period.
Compared to a standard 60 m² apartment, the average value increased from approximately 42,300 euros in 2021 to 103,200 euros in 2025. It is a profound change that directly alters buyers' decisions and the speed of real estate sales.
At first glance, housing affordability seems relatively constant, if we relate the average salary in the economy to the average price per square meter. However, the major difference occurs in the total value of the apartment, which in absolute terms has become much higher.
Housing affordability has declined significantly over the past five years. While in 2020 a square meter cost the equivalent of 1.7 average salaries in the economy, in 2025 the price rose to 2.1 salaries. This evolution extended the period needed to pay for a 60 m2 apartment from 8.7 years to 10.4 years of full income.
The financial effort required to purchase a square meter has increased by 23.53% in the last 5 years, which means that in 2025 0.4 average salaries more are needed than in 2020.
This aspect is all the more important since a significant part of the buyers in recent years are Moldovan citizens from the diaspora, who have much higher savings or salaries compared to the average salary in the Republic of Moldova.
Analyzing the data as a whole, a clear imbalance emerges between the rapid increase in prices and the steep decrease in the volume of transactions. The accelerated increase in prices, combined with the limited supply of attractive housing, inevitably led to a reduction in the number of transactions.
The financing structure remains a key indicator of market dynamics. If in the last 5 years, on average, approximately 40% of real estate transactions in Chisinau were carried out through mortgage credit, in 2025 this share increased significantly, reaching about 75%.
This development shows that, at current price levels, the market is becoming increasingly dependent on bank financing, and purchase decisions are closely linked to interest rates, down payments and credit terms. Naturally, this limits the potential for further rapid price increases.
Based on these data, the most likely scenario for 2026 is one of price caps at the maximum levels reached in 2025. There may be occasional adjustments of 5–10% in the case of overvalued, poorly positioned or clearly undervalued apartments, but a general decline in the market is unlikely.
Rather, we can expect modest nominal growth, close to the inflation rate (5–7%), as is usually the case in functional economies. In this context, well-located, correctly priced apartments continue to sell relatively quickly, usually within 1–2 months.
Conclusion
Current data clearly shows that the real estate market in Chisinau has entered a stage of maturation and equilibrium, in which the evolution of prices is directly conditioned by access to financing.
The market is not sending signals of collapse, but of selection: correctly valued properties are sold, overvalued ones remain on the market longer without finding a potential buyer. In the coming period, the difference will be made by establishing a real market price, the quality of the property and decisions based on real data, not emotional expectations.
Call on Acces Imobil – the real estate agency that knows the Chisinau market in detail and works exclusively with real data, tested strategies and professional advice. Whether you are selling or buying, the Acces Imobil team helps you achieve the best result, in the shortest time and in maximum safety.
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Author: Victor Cernomorcenco
Realization of the analysis by Victor Cernomorcenco, specialist in real estate in Chisinau and representative of Acces Imobil.
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