Chișinău Real Estate Market in Free Fall - Q1 2026

According to official data provided by the Cadastre, only 623 apartments were sold in Chișinău and its suburbs in the first quarter of 2026 - a level that can no longer be seen as a seasonal fluctuation, but rather as a clear signal that the market has changed. This increasingly highlights the gap between sellers’ asking prices and the real purchasing power of buyers.

In essence, the market is sending a simple message: when prices grow faster than people can afford, transactions begin to decline.

Transactions collapsing year by year: over 84% drop in just 2 years

If we compare Q1 data over the past three years, the picture becomes very clear. According to official Cadastre data, only 623 apartments were sold in Q1 2026 in Chișinău and its suburbs - significantly lower than in previous years.

In the same period of 2025, there were 2,884 transactions, and in 2024 - 3,993.

This shows a sharp downward trend: from 2024 to 2025, the market dropped by 1,109 apartments (approximately -28%), and from 2025 to 2026, the decline reached 2,261 apartments (approximately -78%).

Overall, in just two years, the market lost 3,370 transactions, representing a decline of more than 84% compared to 2024.

Transaction analysis: Q4 2025 vs Q1 2026

Comparing the end of 2025 with the beginning of 2026, we can see that the downward trend is not only continuing but accelerating. In Q4 2025, 999 apartments were sold, while in Q1 2026 only 623.

This represents a drop of 376 transactions in a very short period, equivalent to a decrease of approximately 38%. Even compared to an already weak quarter, the market continues to lose volume.

In other words, this is not just a yearly decline, but an accelerating downward trend from one quarter to another.

Factors behind the decline in transactions

Several factors are driving this decline, but the most important is the growing gap between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ reality. While sellers are still anchored to the recent peak prices, buyers are becoming more cautious, more selective, and increasingly focused on real value and long-term security.

At an average level of around €1,720 per square meter, according to the Acces Imobil Real Estate Index, prices have already moved beyond the comfort zone for many buyers, and purchasing decisions are no longer emotional, but calculated - and often postponed.

At the same time, economic uncertainty driven by external factors - the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and global economic instability - is making people more cautious and less willing to take on large loans or long-term commitments.

As a result, buyers are looking for real opportunities and fair pricing, while many sellers are still expecting prices from the growth period, leading to a clear market deadlock.

Forecast for the Chișinău real estate market in 2026

Looking ahead to the coming months, it is realistic to expect a moderate price correction in the range of 5-7%, especially given the sharp decline in transaction volume and the increasing pressure on sellers. This is not a market crash, but rather a necessary adjustment to bring the market back into a functional balance.

An important factor influencing this evolution is the suspension of the “Prima Casă Plus” program, which in recent years significantly supported demand, particularly among first-time buyers. Without this support, a significant portion of demand will disappear or be postponed, further reducing upward pressure on prices.

At the same time, there is a risk of rising inflation by the end of the year, which could further impact purchasing power and financing costs. In such a context, buyers will become even more cautious, and the market will increasingly favor correctly priced properties.

Overall, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of adjustment and repositioning, where the market will seek balance not through growth, but through adaptation to economic realities.

Author: Victor Cernomorcenco, Real Estate Specialist at Acces Imobil.

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